NEW HAMPSHIRE

Posted at 6:20 p.m. ET

New Hampshire has been edging Democratic in recent years, and it may still go to Obama in this election.  However, the political trends in the state are a good example of what seems to be happening nationally to Obama.  Scott Rasmussen reports his findings, as of today:

The presidential race in New Hampshire is now a toss-up. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds that Barack Obama's once-double-digit lead over John McCain is down to a statistically insignificant one-point lead, 43% to 42%.

When “leaners” are factored in, Obama is ahead 47% to 46%.

The details:

The Democrat’s support has steadily decreased in the Granite State since he clinched the nomination in early June. Obama fell from an 11-percentage point lead in mid-June to a six-point lead in July. The latest numbers mark the closest the race has been so far this year.

The latest numbers show support growing for McCain from those in his party. He now earns the vote from 87% of GOP voters, up from 78% a month ago. Though Obama still has a 42% to 34% lead among unaffiliated voters, support for the Democrat is down from 50% last month. He also has a 46% to 38% lead among women. Among men in New Hampshire, McCain has a 46% to 40% edge.

While Obama has a solid lead among younger voters, the race is close among voters between the ages of 30 and 64. McCain has a dominant lead among voters age 65 and older.

Things are going in the right direction, but the work ahead will be hard and frustrating.  Obama is surrounded by shrewd political operatives, and he's started to fight back.  The media will help him.  Don't be shocked if there's an October surprise that helps Obama - some last-minute "revelation" about McCain that won't be disproved until after the election.  And don't be shocked on election day if there are big-city precincts in crucial states where more people vote than live in the precincts.  There are areas in the nation that honor the wisdom of the dearly departed by permitting them to vote.  Why not?  They've had so much experience.

A fight ahead.

August 20, 2008.